Category: Blog

The last two years for multifamily have been historical and incredible, to say the least. 2021 & 2022 brought with them a myriad of firsts for multifamily including record rent growth and record high retention rates. Along with that, we’ve also seen the industry adopt self-serving leasing tools more than ever along with an increasing number of properties embracing a centralized leasing model for the very first time. 

The leasing environment over the last two years most certainly favored owners, investors and property management companies, however, it’s important you don’t get too comfortable. As we head into the spring and summer leasing cycle, properties will find themselves in a much more competitive landscape. There will be little room for complacency in 2023 and in order to maximize NOI, you’ll need to focus on leading your regional market, even in a downturn. 

Here’s how you can better prepare for the competition ahead in 2023: 

Inspect what you expect 

Conduct a detailed walk of the asset. Inspect all common areas, including trash bins, models, and vacant units. It might sound like a no-brainer, yet many properties still struggle to do this on a consistent basis. The reality is that quality matters. When you are responsible for someone’s home, the little things go a long way. Even something as little as a trash smell coming down the hall of your units could be chipping away at your rent growth potential.  

Walk in the shoes of your residents and prospects. The experience for them matters. When you walk properties or units with the mindset of checking off a task list instead of walking to see through the renter’s eyes, you will miss important details.   

Fine-tune your team 

Your team has not had to “sell” the last two leasing seasons like they will this year. Gone are the days when only a handful of units would be available. It’ll be critical to work with individual team members to help improve their skills and knowledge. Consider role-playing with your team members to help them navigate pushback from prospects or articulate what’s great and unique about your property. Show them how to validate rent prices for new and renewing leases.  

Ask your team how many touchpoints they’ve had with the leases that are ending. What was the quality of those interactions?  Even if your team has fallen into bad habits and hasn’t been engaging with residents much, it’s never too late for them to help renters make the most of the community. Consider offering things like a proactive maintenance appointment. Have an office and maintenance team member do an occupied walk-through to address any unreported or overlooked issues.   

Pull up the list of past prospects who did not lease in the past two years. If you really want to get out in front of increased vacancies, build a pipeline of potential renters from people who have already expressed interest in your community. This is often a very underutilized, yet effective strategy for multifamily. 

Consider celebrating and sharing effective follow-ups used by individual team members with the rest of the team.  As it is with most things, if you ask your frontline team, they often know what works and what does not.  

Retaining as much of the rent growth gained over the previous two years should be top of mind. Invest in your team so they understand the impact this has on the property budget and help them understand the importance of holding the line on this year’s renewal offers. Show them how follow-through and follow-up are just as essential to renewals as they are net new leases. Renewals start with the move-in. 

Improve Your Lead-to-Lease Processes 

Just as you need to understand the physical experience for your residents, you also need to understand the virtual experience for your prospects. At this point, most properties are utilizing technology for some aspect of their leasing process. Many jumped on the tech train out of necessity at the start of the pandemic, but now, they may be overdue for a reevaluation of how and what tech they are using.  

Try navigating the process like a prospective renter: 

1. Start with the search. How easily are you finding the asset? What is the experience when going from the ILS to your website?  

2. Visit your own website (and your neighboring properties’ websites, too). How does your site stand out from the others? Does your website capture your unique value proposition? How easy is it for a renter get to information they need? 

3. Check out the mobile experience of your website. Most people are using their cell phones for any kind of initial research. If your website is formatted for desktop-only, you’re creating immediate friction with prospective renters who visit from their phone. 

4. Check out the floorplans. How is the experience when selecting a unit on the web and mobile? If the images or floorplan interaction are an afterthought, you are possibly losing your prospects to someone who is doing it better. 

5. Try out the application process. A surprising number of prospects abandon the application process when it becomes complicated, hard-to-use, or is jumping in and out of desperate workflows. Be on the lookout for those points of friction. 

6. Pay attention to what happens next. What is the post-application experience like? Is your team following up and following through? If they are, how quickly and effectively are they communicating? 

Walking through the leasing process yourself will help you notice the cracks and holes that need to be filled. For example, you might notice your team is struggling to get to every call. This is where you can delegate a call center to help make sure you engage every caller. And it’s important to be choosey. Some call centers only take a message on behalf of your team. While this is a step up from reaching the voicemail and missing the call altogether, there are call centers out there that operate as extensions of your leasing team and can effectively move callers to the next step in the leasing process. This will be crucial in the upcoming months as a missed call can mean money left on the table.  

You might also consider adding a Chatbot to your site to answer common questions and give information to prospective residents. Even better, some chatbots let website visitors connect with live agents so they can get their detailed or nuanced questions answered without having to call your property. This helps reduce the overall call volume for your team and will also help funnel in ready-to-tour renters.  

If you are considering or evaluating Chatbots or call centers, you must  understand the ultimate goal for each. These tools are not going to convert leads for you directly. They will, however, help your team make sure no lead is missed. 

Compare performance between assets in your portfolio 

Most property management software can generate lead conversion reports. Try taking things a step further. Build a schedule where you bring team members from different properties together to review their KPI reports and share more specific details to determine why some things are working better for some. Again, you’d be surprised to find out from your on-site staff how even the slightest adjustment in strategy or tactics can make a noticeable difference in conversion rates. 

Remember, 2023 will not look like the last two years. Prepare your teams for the extra effort they’ll need to put in as leasing season arrives and do your due diligence in setting up your properties and staff for success. We’re rooting for you! 

Are you looking for extra tools to maximize your NOI in 2023? We’ve got a few we think could help. Book some time with us here. 

We’re going to rip the band-aid we all know exists and state the obvious: employee turnover within property management is a major pain point for multifamily. Phew, we said it. Now, solutions for reducing the 33% turnover rate have been talked about and with the cost of hiring, training, and getting employees up-to-speed, we want to give you the most effective strategies so you can maximize NOI for the long run: 

1. Provide Clear Communication and Expectations: Clear and consistent communication is key to building trust and fostering a positive work environment. Employees do their best when they fully understand their roles and responsibilities as well as the company’s goals and objectives. Regular performance evaluations and feedback can also help ensure that employees are meeting expectations. 

2. Offer Competitive Compensation and Benefits: Competitive compensation and benefits packages are an investment and can help attract and retain top talent, if you budget for it accordingly. This includes offering fair wages, health insurance, retirement plans, paid time off, and other benefits that employees value. However, you can also offer perks that aren’t out-of-pocket costs such as added flex days or providing access to benefits that are employee self-funded (retirement plans, life/accident/pet insurance, concierge services, etc). 

3. Comprehensive Training & Resources: Onboarding employees means giving them the training they’ll need in order to be successful. Industry, fair housing, and even company-specific training around their role should be easy to consume and understand. Some properties even have de-escalation and interpersonal skills training to equip them for the inevitable conflicts between residents or staff. Additionally, training staff to use your technology can be a tough task, especially if the staff are new to your software. Talk with your software provider about additional videos, resources and support that can be provided to make sure new staff can hit the ground running when they start their daily operational tasks. Shameless plug: Many organizations that switch to ResMan report that the ease of use of the software actually reduces turnover because it saves time and makes everyone’s jobs easier from site staff to back office teams and even regional managers. 

4. Create a Positive Work Environment: A positive work environment can help employees feel valued and appreciated. Encourage open communication, teamwork, and collaboration. We know a positive work environment comes from the top down, so help managers build leadership skills by mentoring them along the way.

5. Offer and Encourage Professional Development: Providing opportunities for employees to learn and grow can help them feel engaged and motivated. Offer training programs, mentorship opportunities, and allow them to attend local, state or even national industry conferences and events. To those who show an interest in growing, offer some sort of reimbursement for their certification course fees. Shameless plug #2: Some property management software providers (like ResMan) offer industry and leadership skills training courses as part of the platform, making it easy for you to both offer professional development and develop the next generation of leaders for your organization.  

6. Show Appreciation: Showing appreciation for your employees’ hard work and dedication can help to foster a positive work environment and increase employee satisfaction. A simple “thank you” email or a hand-written note can go a long way in making employees feel appreciated and valued. Host events like holiday parties or a company picnic to show appreciation to staff for their hard work. 

7. Foster work-life balance: Allow employees to have a good balance between work and personal life. If you can manage it with the role, flexible working hours, remote working options, and paid time off can help employees feel more satisfied and less stressed. Make sure your leaders and managers are doing their best to model good work-life balance so employees feel like it’s okay to take advantage of their benefits without getting burnt out. 

Implementing these strategies can help property management companies retain their employees and improve overall employee satisfaction, which saves you time and money. It is also important to remember that retaining employees is an ongoing process that requires constant attention and effort. However, that attention and effort will go a long way in its return. Regularly evaluating and adjusting these strategies can help ensure that they remain effective over time for your company’s overall hiring and staffing needs. 

Does your current software provider support your employee retention enough? Let’s talk. 

In February of 2022, InhabitIQ’s Elizabeth Francisco and ALN’s Jordan Brooks sat down to talk about the 2022 forecast for the economy, specifically within multifamily. Our forecast was officially “sunny with a chance of rain,” as we were cautiously optimistic. As it would happen, some of those rainclouds are beginning to loom a bit more as properties finalize their budgets for the 2023 fiscal year. It’s important to note, however, that this is not frightening or unmanageable, but we invited Jordan back to take a look at the data and give insight into what’s to come and how to prepare for 2023. 

2022 Multifamily Performance 

2022 started off strong, though a bit of a downtick from the peak occupancy rate in October and November of 2021. Last fall, we saw the unusual trend of strong occupancy growth alongside strong rent growth. As we normally see those numbers at odds, this was unusual though it could be attributed to several factors. In the end, we’ve seen occupancy decline since its peak with the seasonal bounce in demand and has only reaccelerated the decline with the slowdown of deliveries this summer. 

Rent and Occupancy for Oct. 2019 to Sept. 2022 

Lease concessions grew until the first quarter of 2021 and have only picked up more recently in the last month or two. You might be wondering if apartment demand has been down, why have we still seen 8.5-9% rent growth year to date? Some of that has to do with bringing high average occupancy into the new year and it’s taken some time to work through that. However, as we are moving into the winter, a lot of that excess occupancy has been used, as we still have 50-80% basis points excess compared to when we went into the pandemic.  

In 2022, we’ve seen monthly net absorption has trailed new supply all year, which is a vast difference from the middle of 2021 where occupancy was clearly outpacing the production of net new units. The decline of demand in 2022 has impacted all assets, however the Class C and D assets have the most pronounced shortfall. 

New Units vs Absorbed Units Oct. 2019 – Sept. 2022 

It’s important to note when we’re talking about how the cost of capital is going to affect development, the net new units that will be available in the next two years have already begun development and broken ground. So, the slowing in development that is currently taking place will affect units that are supposed to be ready in three to five years as those are the ones under planning and financing now. 

What Has Changed & What to Watch 

The multifamily industry had over 600,000 net absorbed units in 2021, leaving many wondering why there was so much demand and how so many new households came about. One reason could be attributed to the “failure-to-launch” age range of 25-34 making a change between 2020 and 2021 as there was a clear decline in this age cohort living at home between those years. This is the first decline since 2005. It’s possible this decline came after many of these individuals found a need for space after the first year of COVID-19. Stimulus payments might have also helped or encouraged individuals to find living quarters of their own. 

Young Adults Living at Home 1990-2021 

Jobs and Labor Market 

Moving to the employment side of the economy, the labor market remains tight although we’ve seen big corporations doing layoffs toward the back half of this year. The demand picture has changed for multifamily but the shoe that hasn’t dropped yet is the softening of the labor force. When that does occur or when unemployment starts to rise, this will affect multifamily and is important to keep an eye on in the future. It’s possible that the markets with a more diversified employment base might be in a better position to weather the storm. 

Sunbelt states saw a big wave of supply and new demand as people moved to these more affordable cities. Some might think that Sunbelt states have lost some of their luster since they’ve seen rent growth and affordability go up since these migrations. On the contrary, while Sunbelt states have seen some of the highest rates of rent growth, the difference is marginal and these cities started at a lower point than other cities. If you compare cities like Orlando and Tampa to Los Angeles and Chicago, the latter has declined since the pandemic whereas Florida cities have seen a robust and inclining labor force since COVID-19. 

Labor Force in Representative Cities Sept. 2019 – Jul. 2022 

US Disposable Personal Income 2000 – 2022 

Credit Card Debt Across the U.S. 

Over the last few months, many of us have heard that Americans had a record amount of money in their bank accounts- something we were not convinced was totally accurate today. Surprisingly enough though, disposable personal income reached an all-time high in 2021. However, it dropped as quickly as it spiked. Disposable income is still higher than it was in 2019. One must wonder how prolonged inflation will impact the health of consumers’ bank accounts. Access to cash and credit is important for our renters as they try to manage through a tightening economy and possible recession, which will certainly impact their housing decisions. 

Most of us have at least some of it, but collectively, we’ve reached a staggering high point when it comes to credit card debt. Americans have accumulated an absolute mountain of credit card debt in 2022 — $887 billion, to be exact. That’s a $46 billion jump from $841 billion in the first quarter of 2022. With the increase, Americans’ credit card debt stands $40 billion below the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019, when balances stood at $927 billion. Thanks to rising interest rates, stubborn inflation and myriad other economic factors, it’s likely a matter of time before credit card balances surpass the 2019 record.    

Average Credit Card Debt from Jan-Feb 2022 Credit Reports 

While credit card debt is growing again at a staggering rate, it is important to note that only 1.81 % of CC accounts are 30+ Delinquents, up from 1.66% in 2Q22.   

Annual Multifamily Absorptions and Renewal Rates 

Renewal rates hit a new record in the first quarter of 2022 at 58.4% before moderating to 56.9% in the second quarter. The higher renewal rates can easily be attributed to the net new lease rate. The rent on a unit vacated and then leased to a new tenant increased, on average, 8.5%. Earlier in the year some markets were as high 18%. Comparatively, a tenant renewing a lease in the same quarter saw an increase in rent of 10.8%. 

At the peak of renewals, the gap between effective and net new rents was around 11%, which equated to built-in rent growth for this current year and made for an attractive offering to investors. If we look at where we are today, the picture looks very different. With Net New lease rent growth slowing considerably, you need to think about your approach to renewal from this point forward, weighing out the turn cost/renewal rent and net new rent.   

Transaction Volume 

The Fed’s use of interest rates to battle inflation is a double-edged sword for multifamily. First, inflation drives up each new unit’s cost, impacting existing and new development projects. New units initially forecasted to come online in 2022 have slowed as GMs have to deal with increased labor costs and materials. Slowing inflation would benefit new development costs.  

On the other hand, with each rate hike, the building & financing of apartments have become more expensive, making it harder for new deals to pencil out.  In addition, some properties have shared that the cost of long-term borrowing has increased significantly since 1Q22. 

U.S. Multifamily Sales Volume, Price per Unit 

CRBE, Freddie Mac, and others are all forecasting the same thing, a slowdown in transaction volume for the remainder of 2022. 2021 was a record year for transaction volume, and 1H22 started off very promisingly. However, the back half of the year could look different than initially forecasted.  

According to Yardi Matrix data, overall national multifamily sales volume surpassed $101 billion in the first six months of 2022, outperforming the $67 billion volume registered in 2021 during the same interval, while the average price per unit rose 28.4 percent year-over-year, to a new high of $218,377. The number of assets that traded also increased, from 2,362 properties during the first half of 2021 to 2,961 in 2022.  

Transaction activity will continue, but capital has become more selective and focused on lower-risk profiles; buyers should be prepared for increased pricing, lower proceeds, higher reserves, or personal guarantees. There doesn’t seem to be much of a path to multifamily having another record number of transactions by year-end.  

Looking Ahead – Q4 2022 & Early 2023 Indicators 

Many are wondering how likely a recession is and if it hits, when that could or will happen. Wall Street Journal predicts by Q4, there is a 63% chance we are heading into a recession in the next 12 months. It’s likely we will see significant signs of this come this time next year. 

Projected Fed Funds Rate 2022-2025 

A few short months ago, the Fed had projected rate increases under 4%. The Fed has raised its projections and now believes interest rates will need to increase to 4.4% by end of 2022, 4.6% by EOY 2023 and don’t expect to cut rates until 2024. Rising interest rates also impact the new development of much-needed units to meet the housing demand.   

Interest rates impact a lot: consumers’ mortgage rates, student loans, auto loans, and credit card rates.  Credit card debt, as mentioned, is already increasing for Americans and all of these things become a contributing factor as renters assess what they can pay for rent.   

Mortgage rates have already gone up from Jan 21 (2.65%) by nearly 300% (current rates sit at 6.9%). We have not seen mortgage rates jump this quickly since 1977 (8.65%)-1981(18.6%). 73% of mortgage borrowers are locked in at rates below 4%, creating an extremely powerful incentive to stay in their current homes long-term.  

You can say the same thing about long-term renters, the rising interest rates reduced purchasing power from 400K down to 274K, keeping the monthly mortgage under 2K at $1,784. What keeps homeowners in place is the same thing that will keep renters in the rental market. As interest rates continue to rise, the home buyers purchasing power will continue to compress, which I think incentivizes renters to also stay put in the rental market. 

Forecasted National Multifamily Trends 

Multifamily New Units, Absorption, Occupancy, and Rent Growth 2000 – 2028 

In the nearer term for 2023 and 2024, new supply will be more active than in previous years and will pressure occupancies downward. In general, a return to 3-5% rent growth is a reasonable expectation as well as completions on the higher end of the scale of what we’ve seen over the last decade. 

Housing Supply Likely to Remain Constrained 

According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the Housing Market Index (HMI) is currently at the lowest point since the early days of the pandemic. While high mortgage rates have helped offset recent multifamily rent growth in terms of comparative affordability, single-family permits, starts and sales are all down year over year. It’s likely we’ll see more buyers and sellers remain on the sidelines for the near term. The good news is the lack of good, substitute affordability should provide some level of support for multifamily demand. 

While there are fears around the looming recession, there are not a lot of new surprises for multifamily in the upcoming months. Ultimately, there’s a lot of data to focus on in the upcoming months as you’re finalizing your budgets for the year 2023. As multifamily saw the Great Recession had much more looming data for the rental housing industry a decade and a half ago, we are cautiously optimistic for the industry for the future.